Sunday, September 28, 2008

Does the Story Ever Add Up?

Dan Harrington said one of the ways you sniff out a bluff is if the story does not add up. I think I know what that means, except that so many people play deceptively that I don't think the story is supposed to add up.

One of the few games where I thought it might was last night at the Mohegan Sun 2-5 nl game.
I thought this game was the most straight forward that I had ever seen and fairly weak. There were maybe two people at the table who would raise without a big pair or AK. Many people would limp in with say, an A8o and then make small bets if they flopped top pair. It was as though everyone was new.

The downside was that they didn't want to call many raises pf. They were content to fold when they missed the flop so I wasn't sure how to stack anyone.

I raised two EP limpers with KJs to 20$, I had about 300 and the medium stack between the two of them. If I had overlimped, a 7 way unraised pot was likely and I didn't want that. Everyone folded and they both called.
Pot=65$

Flop: K 3 4 rainbow, with one of my suit.

They check to me and I bet 30$ into the 65. Then came the suprise, the first limper check-raised all in. The other guy folded. It was 82 more over my 30.

I often stare blankly at my opponent trying to get a tell and figure out what the heck the odds were, 99% of the time I forget the pot size and have to reconstruct it, poor. 125$ after he calls my raise plus 82 = 207$, costing 80$ to call. 2.5:1.

He was staying still like a statue and giving a statue like stair, not even moving his unlit cigarette. What kind of hands beat me?

AK and KQ: Would he have limped/called with those in early position? Maybe, the table was weak like that.

A set: Possible, but would he try to not really slow play and get it all at once instead of letting me bet again? I don't know, I haven't played with him before.

Raggedy 2 pair: the least likely, although they were limping some trash, but not calling raises with as bad as K4.

AA? I guess you can play aces that way.

What do I beat? K10, the weaker Kings are less likely. Some other pair and he isn't putting me on a hand that can has a K?

what's my point? His story makes no sense to me, I didn't know what he had. Even if we assume that he is playing straightforwardly like Harrington does, nothing really adds up. Unfortunately the hands that beat me are less unlikely than what I beat, but the pot odds aren't bad and there will be no more betting. So when in doubt, I called.

Results. Turn Ace river 2. he tables A-5 off-suit and his str8 wins. Makes sense doesn't it?

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